Thursday, June 15, 2006

The One...

The past few decades saw exponential increase in the usage of computers. This was made possible by two geniuses (evil if you prefer...), Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. If the world was left to the academic world and nothing was done for a profit motive then all the smart people would be writing smart papers and devising smart products, but without the likes of Gates or Jobs widespread adoption of such products is next to impossible. It is due to them that we know and use the "mouse". It is because of them that we have our own personal computers... They were the forerunners of a totally new generation. I would say that they marked the end of industrial age and the starting of an information era because the other computer giants like IBM functioned much like industrial powerhouses.

Gates will be retiring in a few years and market is full with the rumors about Jobs' retirement. You would say that Microsoft and Apple have enough money to sustain themselves... well they do have money but they wont be able to sustain themselves. Apple had to rehire Steve Jobs to make a market standing. The CEO of Pixar was rehired by Disney to stop the plunging stock prices. Even though these firms are outrageously big, it takes only one man to run the show. 96% of the computers have Mac or Windows on them, i.e 2 out of 6 billion people in the world govern how millions of people worldwide use their computers.

With the retirement of these two people I see the death of two powerhouses, I see the opportunity to capture 96% of the market. Of course this will happen in a period of 10-15 years. The powerhouses will collapse, there will be a momentary period of lull and then a new market leader will emerge with a totally new product which will revolutionize the way we live. Considering the explosive growth in the hardware sector, I am thinking that the product will be far beyond anything we can comprehend now. It wont be google,and it wont be yahoo. I don't think that it would be Linux either... something with a totally new cybernetic interface.

This is the time to throw your sleeping bags and think something radically different. We have been given a "once in a lifetime" opportunity. We can make millions doing what we are doing but if we grab that 96% of the market, we would be billionaires and have our names in history books, probably have a Discovery channel episode on us. Lets see who'll be "The One"



  1. I think it will be world of handheld's with Google powering the software.

  2. ummm.. i dont think so.
    It has to be something radically different and AFAIK handhelds will never replace the desktops in term of computing power and ease of usage.

  3. How much COMPUTING power would you really need ?? minus the blotted byte crunching GUI's !!

  4. I dont know anything about whether Gates or Jobs will ever retire. Some people just dont retire. LOL

    Regarding the market - you are still looking at the same existing market, i.e. the current users. There exists an entirely new untapped market, like rural India, China, Brazil etc.

    The requirements of these markets might be totally different from the need of the current users, so solutions to be devised could be quite different.

    Accessibility devices - today if you look at a majority of users, they use the PC (or sometimes the high-end mobile). Both are personal devices - what is the suitability of such a device in a rural setting with the community kiosk being a PC. There is a mismatch between what is offered (PC - personal device) and what is required (a community device - any suggestions here?). Here a key factor is affordability also. So creating an affordable access device would be an interesting challenge.

    So even without fantastic change in the basic technology there is still potential to think of novel solutions for a different market and be extremely successful.

    Just my thoughts :)

  5. well the_visitor, its not about catering to the existing user. Its about creating new markets... nobody thought they would use electric bulbs before they were discovered, nobody thought computers will be as versatile and pervasive as they are today.

    Maybe the new device I am talking about be the "community device" you are talking about... at this point all i can say is it has gotta ba something radical.